WASHINGTON— The Trump administration’s proposal to dramatically ramp up offshore oil drilling could lead to 4,232 oil spills, dumping 12.1 million gallons of oil into ocean waters, according to an analysis by the Center for Biological Diversity.

The Center’s spill analysis of Trump’s draft 2026-2031 leasing plan is based on historical data and federal records.

“Our analysis shows that Trump’s ridiculously reckless drilling plan could cause thousands of new oil spills, threatening almost every U.S. coast,” said Kristen Monsell, oceans legal director at the Center for Biological Diversity. “Nobody wants beaches and marine life coated in crude, but that’ll be our future if Trump’s scheme goes forward. Every new drilling project signs us up for decades of problems, and our wildlife and coastal economies will suffer the most.”

Today’s analysis assumes average spill rates for platforms and pipelines based on 1974-2015 data. It does not include catastrophic events like the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon disaster, which released more than 210 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico.

Trump’s draft plan calls for as many as 34 offshore oil and gas lease sales over the next five years. It could open up as much as 1.27 billion acres of federal waters to drilling off California, Alaska and in the Gulf of Mexico. That amount is far more than previous administrations have offered. It is in addition to 36 offshore oil lease sales mandated in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

The Center’s oil spill calculations and estimates for each planning area are available here and FAQs for the projections are here.

By the administration’s own estimates, the increase in extraction and fossil fuel combustion could also add as much greenhouse gas pollution to the atmosphere as burning nearly 200 billion pounds of coal.

Several imperiled species are at risk from increased drilling:

Pacific

Sea otter: Known for their thick furry coats, sea otters once inhabited the entire U.S. Pacific coast, all the way from Alaska down to Baja California. Sea otters are especially vulnerable to oil spills that coat their fur, ruining their natural insulation against the cold. Otters already face oil spill threats from existing offshore drilling near the southern part of their current range, and expanded drilling could halt recovery and reintroduction efforts.

Southern resident killer whale: These orcas spend most of their time in the Pacific Northwest, but regularly travel as far south as Monterey, California. Running into an oil spill in Northern California could devastate this genetically distinct population, which is down to just 74 individuals.

Blue whale: The largest seasonal aggregation of these enormous mammals occurs in the Santa Barbara Channel off California, an area already at risk of oil spills from existing drilling nearby. Blue whale populations have been steadily growing since whaling wiped out an estimated 99% of the species, but they still have a long way to go.

Pacific leatherback sea turtle: As ancient as the dinosaurs, these turtles migrate all the way from Indonesia and then along the West Coast to feed on jellyfish and other gelatinous prey. Leatherbacks are the heaviest reptiles on Earth, and their population is already declining from existing threats such as fishing gear entanglement.

Gulf of Mexico

Black-capped petrel: These far-traveling seabirds forage in the Gulf of Mexico and off the Atlantic coast, returning to raise their young on Hispaniola, the island of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Also called diablotín, or “little devil,” for their eerie night calls, the petrel’s population has declined quickly, and oil spills could kill the food sources they fly hundreds of miles to find. Additionally, artificial lighting from offshore oil platforms disorients migrating seabirds and even causes them to collide with platforms.

Rice’s whale: The critically endangered Rice’s whale lives in the Gulf year-round, and only about 50 individuals remain. Scientists estimate that the BP Deepwater Horizon disaster killed about 20% of their population, and another major spill could wipe them out completely. As surface swimmers, the whales are also prone to ship strikes. Seismic airgun blasting used by the oil and gas industry disrupts their ability to communicate, find mates and care for their young.

Kemp’s ridley sea turtle: Beaches along the Gulf are the primary nesting sites for these turtles, which have rebounded from near-extinction thanks to breeding programs and conservation interventions. But they are still highly imperiled and their continued recovery relies on a healthy Gulf ecosystem, which more oil spills could easily disrupt.

Alaska

Bowhead whale: Arctic oil drilling and climate charge are the primary threats for these cold-water giants. Bowhead populations have come back from the brink thanks to commercial whaling prohibitions, but the whales are now contending with a changing habitat due to melting sea ice.

Pacific walrus: The Center has been fighting for endangered species protections for the blubbery tusked walrus for almost two decades. Exploratory offshore drilling in the Chukchi Sea posed a huge risk to walrus habitat, until the Center and allies blocked the project. Trump’s plan revives the threat.

Cook Inlet beluga whale: The population of these small, white whales is only about 330. They face threats from existing oil and gas extraction, commercial shipping and climate change. Cook Inlet is already crowded with industry and at risk of spills, and ramping up drilling could be fatal for these belugas.